Data
These are the data collected from the survey.
For any additional data, please contact Olivier Coibion (ocoibion@austin.utexas.edu) or Yuriy Gorodnichenko (ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu).
Master File Weights Example (will have Stata and Excel)
The following graph presents the data for 12-month-ahead inflation expectations of surveyed firms (survey question 1). Hover over data points to see their values.
The following table presents firms' answers to survey questions 1, 2B, 2C, and 2D.
| Panel A: 1-year-ahead inflation forecasts, percentage points | ||
|---|---|---|
| Month | Mean | Standard Deviation |
| April 2018 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| July 2018 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| October 2018 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| January 2019 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| April 2019 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| July 2019 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| October 2019 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| January 2020 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| April 2020 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| July 2020 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| October 2020 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| January 2021 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| April 2021 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| July 2021 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| October 2021 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| January 2022 | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| April 2022 | 6.8 | 2.5 |
| July 2022 | 6.8 | 2.8 |
| October 2022 | 7.4 | 2.5 |
| January 2023 | 5.7 | 2.4 |
| Panel B: 5-year-ahead inflation forecasts, percentage points | ||
| October 2018 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| October 2019 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| October 2020 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| October 2021 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| October 2022 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Panel C: 1-year inflation nowcasts/backcasts, percentage points | ||
| July 2018 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| July 2019 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| July 2020 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| July 2021 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| July 2022 | 8.0 | 1.9 |
| Panel D: Inflation over the next year will exceed 5% | ||
| January 2019 | 24.6 | 23.3 |
| January 2020 | 9.0 | 14.2 |
| January 2021 | 19.7 | 26.7 | January 2022 | 53.2 | 34.0 | January 2023 | 47.8 | 36.3 |
Download (Excel)